Lots to discuss today, so we will jump right into it. First up, check out the latest drought map! Huge improvement since last week and especially the most recent weeks, as half of the state has returned to normal conditions. After our bout of rainfall the past few days, I expect continued improvement for for all this time next week. Speaking of next week, what changes we have in store! Starting first with what you can expect this weekend and into early next week: generally very little. Most should anticipate a mix of sunshine and passing clouds with highs in the low to mid 40s each day. We will be wedged between high pressure near to just to our south and a disturbance to our north. Because of this, can't entirely rule out a light snow shower or set of flurries in the highest elevations of the Smokies tonight through Saturday night. Otherwise, dry and cool conditions prevail for the vast majority of us. Now, into the changes later next week. As many of you have probably seen, heard, or even wished for, we have the chance for a wintry system to pass through the area. The details, as of now, remain some what fuzzy, but chances are likely we see precipitation of some kind. The latest guidance depicts a strong area of low pressure and an Arctic cold front sliding through the region, bringing a rain to snow mix followed by very cold temperatures. Looking below, this outlook depicts the chance we see at least 0.25" of snow/sleet liquid equivalent. This means if you were to melt the snow/sleet down, this is the probability that it would equate to at least a quarter of an inch. For common figures, we use a 10:1 ratio for snow. This means 1 inch of rain roughly equates to 10 inches of snow. So, you could think of this as the probability of at least 2 inches of snow (with lesser amounts if talking sleet ratios). Keep in mind snow ratios vary greatly based on temperatures, but this is the general rule of thumb. As such, we do see a low end chance of solid accumulation later next week (Thursday). With timing, strength, and low pressure path still uncertain, changes are likely, but the overall set up of precipitation (of some kind) and cold temperatures is a near lock. So, touching on the cold temps, take a look at this raw single model output for potential highs Friday (the 23rd). Yes, these won't be the exact readings but it gives you an idea of the kind of cold we are talking about. Low temperatures into Friday and Saturday morning (depending on snow potential) could be in the single digits to the teens. To make it worse, afternoon highs will likely not cross the 30 mark, with most more than likely in the low to mid 20s Friday and Christmas Eve. Another element to keep in mind are wind gusts. The strong front will bring breezy conditions to the area, which could lead to dangerously cold wind chills. I will emphasize changes are likely and there is still a lot of details to pan through in total, but brace for some cold about 7 days from now. Though we are cooler than average today (highs in the mid 40s) and through the weekend, much cooler air finds us later next week. Start preparing now for the cold temperatures (proper car care, sheltering of outdoor animals, etc.) as well as the possibility of some wintry mix. As of now, confidence is low to medium on accumulating snow (at least for valley locations) and high for cold temperatures thereafter. Stay abreast to the latest updates, as we will have plenty more to come on Monday. Don't forget to also give us a follow on Twitter & Facebook as several updates, images, discussions are posted daily. Have a great weekend and we'll catch you back here on Monday! Pre-recorded for 5pm weather broadcast
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Showers will continue to diminish from west to east this morning, where some sunshine will eventually find us this afternoon. Cooler air is also on the way, where highs for the day actually are on going (now). By this afternoon, most will be in the upper 40s. Check out your full forecast below for more information. Video & associated data as of 6 AM
A soggy and cool rain, just what you ordered up, right? Probably not! Nonetheless, showers and embedded storms will continue through much of the remainder of the day and into tonight. A cold front and strong area of low pressure sit just to our west and is the reason for driving all of this activity. Highs today for most will warm to the low 50s, where lows tonight only fall into the mid and upper 40s. Looking at the outlook today, a Slight Risk of flash flooding remains in place. With rainfall amounts around an inch already (as of 1 pm), another 1 to 2 inches could cause some isolated concerns this evening/tonight. Winds are also gusty in the highest of elevations, with a high wind warning in place across the Smokies. Elsewhere, ridges and the plateau are gusting up to 30 mph, while most valley locations aren't too impressive. The general play-by-play is of showers continuing tonight. As the cold front breaks east, a last push of moderate to heavy showers, and a few embedded storms, will cross the Volunteer State late this evening and overnight. Most activity should begin diminishing early Thursday morning, where drier and much cooler conditions filter in. The plateau and western valley will begin drying first, followed eastward through the morning to early afternoon. Clearing will also come with that, where most find partly cloudy skies by the late afternoon tomorrow. Lastly, temperatures will be the warmest during the morning (low 50s), followed by cooling temperatures the remainder of the day. From Friday through the weekend, we generally remain dry and cold with highs in the lower 40s. Though we haven't had any issues so far, more rain will find the area through tonight. This could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, so have a way to receive warnings and know what to do if one is issued. Drier and much cooler conditions should follow the second half of the day tomorrow and continue into the foreseeable future. Good afternoon! It was a pleasant start to the day, but cloud cover is gradually filling in. This will result in cloudy skies within the next couple of hours. Temperatures remain on track though, currently in the lower 50s and should warm a few more degrees before days end. Moving forward, we will continue to emphasize the risk of heavy rains tomorrow. A strong area of low pressure resides across the Central Plains today, where a cold front sags south. Both features will meander east tonight, bringing widespread rainfall and a few thunderstorms through tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will vary, but 1-3" is expected. With rainfall most of last week and heavy rainfall at times tomorrow, WPC has highlighted a slight risk of flash flooding for the day Wednesday. Hopefully the few days of sunshine and drying should allow things to hold, but there could be a couple of spots that become concerning. With that said, know what to do if a Flash Flood Warning is issued. -Seek higher ground and warn others who may not know (safely) -Avoid traveling/driving in flooded waters (just 6" can sweep you off your feet and 12 inches could carry your car away) -Have a way to keep up with local officials for the latest information regarding warnings/floods/evacuations/etc Again, the overall chances for flash flooding are low to medium, but something some may face, these are just a few things to keep in mind/follow if a warning were to be issued for your area. In addition to heavy rainfall (at times), winds could be gusty for the higher terrain. Checking out this high resolution model, wind gusts of 30-40 mph are likely for the plateau, foothills, and especially higher terrain of the Smokies. Following the soaking rain tomorrow, cooler and drier air will arrive. Highs will remain in the 40s Friday and onward. This weather system will push in and allow for a cool pattern to overtake the nation, where cooler than average temps are generally expected through the remainder of the month. Though snow chances (in the valley) are low in the near-term, it is something we will watch closely in the days to weeks ahead. Pre-recorded for 5pm weather broadcast
Much clearer news as it relates to the system we have been talking about since last week. But up first, how about the sunshine! After a week of on and off rain and thick clouds, that big ball in the sky has again shown itself. Temperatures will be near average today and tomorrow, topping out in the mid 50s both days. Now, back to this system mid week. It will be a strong area of low pressure across the Plains, bringing strong and severe storms (more than likely) to the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow. Luckily, this system weakens east. Though this is good news for severe weather (very low), the threat of heavy rainfall isn't ruled out. In fact, the WPC has highlighted a Day 3 slight risk of flash flooding. We will have had a few days to dry out from our previous rain, but given the 2-5" some areas picked up through this past week, it is still concerning. Rainfall rates with this next system will vary but 1" per hour can't be ruled out ahead of the approaching cold front. Luckily, this system is fairly progressive (quick moving) but any heavy showers that continue to cross the same area (training) could lead to issues. Right now, the rainfall outlook will be between 2-3" from late Tuesday night through early Thursday afternoon, but locally higher amounts will be possible. Begin planning now if you live in flood/flash flood areas and have a game plan if warnings were to be issued in your area mid week. This will be a very strong cold front, with reinforcing cold air longer term. Looking at the CPC outlook for the second half of December, cold air looks to stay socked in through this time, with chances much higher than average. I have even seen some raw model outputs circulating around about Christmas and cold air and snow....PLEASE take these will a large grain of salt and know weather prediction this far out is nearly impossible and that these graphics folks show are highly likely to change. With that said, yes chances are things will be below average (temperatures) which favors the chance for snow, but time will tell how it all pans out and we'll be here to let you know as we get closer! That will do it for today, be sure to enjoy the sunshine. Clouds increase back tomorrow, leading to periods of heavy rain Wednesday and early Thursday. Drier and much cooler conditions then filter in Friday and through this upcoming weekend. Pre-recorded for 5pm weather broadcast
Alright my snow lovers, not great news as it relates to statistical averages. This historical probability map comes from NCEI, calculating the chance for a white Christmas based on 30-year averages (1991-2020). As you can see below, chances are less than 10% for most of the area. With that said, there is hope! Longer term outlooks indicate a pattern swing to cooler air and this is backed by CPC outlooks as well. As we will discuss here shortly a potent system will bring this change later this upcoming week. For those in the higher elevations, there is a much better chance. For instance, Mt. Leconte has a greater than 40% chance for a white Christmas. As touched on, a change is coming this next week. A strong low pressure system is expected to push into the Lower Mississippi Valley, bringing strong to severe storms which could carry its way into our next of the woods. The good news is this system will weaken eastward, minimizing our chances of severe weather but not completely ruling it out. Strong to damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary threats for now, but can't rule out all hazard types. Additionally, given the rounds of soaking rains we have picked up through this week, flash flooding could be a concern. Heavy rainfall rates look likely at times, so this will also be something we closely monitor ahead. Looking at the 7 day rainfall outlook, more rainfall is on the way. In fact, we could see upwards of 3+ inches over the next week, again bringing the opportunity for flooding/flash flooding given the already soaked grounds. The timing of this strong system will be late Tuesday and through Wednesday, but duration, exact timing, and strength (across East Tennessee) are still uncertain. We will have more details as our confidence surrounding this disturbance grows. As far as expectations the next couple of days, generally improving conditions can be expected. Any lingering showers will fade tonight, leaving us mostly cloudy through the first half of the day Saturday. One last system then brings rainfall later Saturday and into early Sunday, before drier air returns Sunday afternoon and through at least the first half of the day Tuesday. Yes, we will even see some sunshine early next week. Temperatures through this time will generally be in the mid to upper 50s for highs and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Pre-recorded for 5pm weather broadcast
Moderate, to at times, heavy showers are pushing across the heart of the valley early this afternoon. Activity will begin to dwindle into this evening/early night, before picking back up late and into early Friday. Highs today will remain above average, generally in the low 60s. Moving forward, drier air will follow into Friday afternoon, continuing into much of Saturday. Another upper level disturbance will then bring showers Saturday night into early Sunday, before cooler and drier air returns through the morning and continues into at least early Tuesday. Most locations have picked up between 2-4" so far this week, with another 1-2" possible today through Sunday morning. Something we are really watching going forward is a severe threat next Wednesday. A strong area of low pressure and associated cold front are planning to work across the region, bringing strong to severe storms to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. This is a day 6 Slight to Moderate outlook, quite rare from the Storm Prediction Center. For now, things look to weaken as they shift east late Tuesday and into the morning Wednesday, but timing, strength, and placement are still in question. Confidence will grow as we move forward. If your sights are set on the finish line of all this rain, we are getting closer but still have a few more laps to go. Showers return best late tonight and then again Saturday night into early Sunday. Drier and cooler air (50s) will then set in most of Sunday, through Monday, and into portions of Tuesday. Don't forget to check out our video forecast below, as we highlight some good news as it relates to the state drought. Pre-recorded for 5pm weather broadcast
Showers are filling in, where widespread activity is seen early this afternoon. Rainfall rates are moderate, but a few pockets of heavy showers are likely as this moves through. We do have a Marginal risk of Flash Flooding today, but with rates doable, issues should be few and far between. That said, most locations have picked up between 1-3" with most in the 2-3 inch range. Moving forward, this swath of showers will move through this afternoon, with activity becoming more spotty this evening and overnight. A warm front is building north so highs today and tomorrow will be above average in the 60s. Into tomorrow, a low pressure system will make its way in, bringing an associated cold front with it. Showers will ramp back up towards tomorrow evening and continue into early Friday. Once the front passes, briefly drier and cooler air will follow Friday afternoon and through a portion of the weekend. Isolated shower chances then return Sunday, with better chances into the new work week. This soggy weather pattern doesn't look like it'll be changing anytime soon, as outlooks depict another 1-2+ inches possible over the next 7 days. The good news is temperatures look to hang at to above average through this time. As always, we will be here to provide the latest, so don't forget to give us a follow on Twitter and Facebook @SecretCityWx Pre-recorded for 5pm weather broadcast
Timing for showers generally remains the same. The best chances will arrive late overnight and through the first half of the day Wednesday, before things become more spotty tomorrow evening. Another passing low and cold front will then bring another round Thursday night into early Friday, where cooler and drier air find us this weekend. Check out more details below. For those heading out from lunch plans, a few light spotty showers are across the area (12:40 pm). The bulk of rainfall is nearer to Chattanooga, with more activity on its way. A warm front is expected to build north tonight, resulting in not only "warm" temperatures tomorrow (60s) but will also allow for widespread showers and storms. This boundary will then stall out across the Ohio Valley tomorrow, acting as a focus for low pressure to develop and ride along through the work week. Intermittent showers and a few storms should be expected. Breaking this down by day.. Today & Tomorrow: the aforementioned boundary will build north today, where spotty showers will turn into widespread showers and isolated storms this evening and overnight. Activity will continue into Tuesday, where things turn more spotty by the afternoon. Temperatures will be chilly today given the cloud coverage, warming to the upper 50s and low 60s by this time tomorrow. Wednesday & Thursday: By Tuesday night, a riding disturbance will bring reinforcing rain to the area, where widespread showers and a few storms will again be likely into Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, the focus will be for showers just south of the boundary. This will be on a line generally running from Nashville, Tennessee to Lexington, Kentucky. Essentially, counties bordering KY and especially those in the northern plateau will see the best and most consistent rain chances through the day. Friday: By Friday, widespread shower chances return (the first half of the day) as an area of low pressure and associated cold front slide through the area. This will result in cooler temperatures through the weekend, but also a period of drier weather after its passage. Highs will generally fall to the low and mid 50s Saturday and Sunday with broken to partly cloudy skies overhead. So with lots of rainfall in the forecast, what does this mean for flooding potential? Well its definitely a possibility but we have some obstacles to first overcome. First, we have been very dry in the most recent months. We have been battling moderate and severe drought across the state, so several rounds of rainfall will be beneficial to the area. Dry soils will also limit runoff into basins, though in increase in levels should be expected. Next, these showers and isolated storms should be light to moderate and fairly progressive- meaning quick moving. With all of this, any areas that see thunderstorms and/or repeated activity could be prone to flash flooding and localized flooding. The WPC has highlighted a Day 1 Marginal for the whole area, with a slight risk nearer to the warm front across the south. Keep up to date on any warnings issued by following us on Twitter and Facebook. Showers should be expected on and off all week, so have those umbrellas handy. We will eventually see a much needed break this weekend, before another opportunity arrives early next week. For now, relax, enjoy the good "sleeping weather", as well as warmer temperatures the next few days. Pre-recorded for 5pm weather broadcast
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