A warm southern breeze behind a warm front (to the north) has forced temperatures into the upper 60's for the lunch time hour. Record-wise, Tyson McGhee has a high temperature on this day of 71 degrees (set back in 1929). We will likely see that broken this afternoon so stay tuned! As for the graphic below, here is the latest from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center). Though severe potential is very limited in east TN, the area most likely to feel stronger thunderstorms (and even isolated tornadoes) this evening is in the Plateau (marginal risk). For the valley and to the east, gusty winds, heavy downpours, and rumbles of thunder are all possible tonight. As you can see from the surface map below, a warm front extended just to the north is allowing for a warm southern surge of temperatures and moisture. By this time tomorrow, rain will be out of the area and temperatures will be cooling quickly. A high will move overhead mid week keeping things cool and mostly sunny. Model guidance shows the timing of this system arriving between 8 and 11 tonight. Even with severe potential very low, don't rule out gusty winds, heavy downpours, and thunder at times. As we get into Tuesday morning, showers will thin out leaving us dry by the afternoon. Clouds will also decrease along with decreasing temperatures behind a cold front. Rain totals will be around an inch for most with locally higher amounts in heavier thunderstorms overnight. Areas of the Plateau and southern Kentucky are under a Flash Flood Watch, so continue staying Weather Aware. With our high Tuesday coming in the morning, don't forget your jackets out of the door. We are anticipating temps in the low 40's for the evening commute tomorrow so be sure to stay warm! As always, stay up to date via social media (Twitter & Facebook) for the latest and have a good one.
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Good afternoon! As a low continues to track north, rain will continue to fall through the day today and into Saturday. Most showers will be scattered and light, with steadier amounts arriving this evening and overnight. A brief break will come Sunday before another system to the west arrives by the start of the new work week. As model guidance is suggesting, and what we have seen so far, showers will remain scattered through the daytime hours. Working into tonight, showers will pick up and become more widespread. This will carry into Saturday before moving out tomorrow afternoon and overnight. Sunday we will stay dry most of the day before showers return overnight and into Monday. This second system will eventually move out early Tuesday leaving cooler and drier air for the remainder of next week. The latest data suggests up to an inch of rainfall throughout east TN through Saturday afternoon. Up to now, most of east Tennessee has received 0.1-0.2 inches of rainfall today. With heavier and more widespread showers arriving tonight, I am tending to agree with the latest data outputs. For clarification, this is what is known as a PLUME. Essentially this is a model outputting ensemble data for a specific variable (this case precipitation amounts). Ensemble means multiple runs of the model with slightly different initial conditions. In an easier sense, the data below is a single model (SREF) suggesting the rainfall for the next 2 days. Instead of a single output seen on your typical graphical model, ensembles change the initial conditions for each run creating a slew of results. The mean of the runs is then used and expressed as the mostly likely result. This is very similar to hurricane models and spaghetti plots. The "cone" provided by the NHC is the average (or most likely path) the hurricane will follow. The middle of the cone is the most likely path but anywhere within the cone is possible. Hence why the closer in time the more confidence (smaller/tighter cone) and the further out, the wider the cone is with less confidence. If you have any further questions about ensemble data or weather as a whole don't hesitate to ask. For now, stay dry as rain continues to be in the forecast for the next several days. Have a good weekend! Starting first with a look at the end of December, the latest from the CPC shows above average temperatures and below average precipitation. This does not rule out the chance for a white Christmas, but as usual, chances are pretty low. As for today, we will be mild with high's around 50 degrees and sunny skies. This afternoon, clouds will increase as a chance of showers is possible overnight. Looking below, a system continues to develop in the Gulf bringing moisture the next couple of days. This system will arrive by mid morning Friday and carry through to Saturday afternoon. We will briefly dry out Sunday before round two arrives from another system to the west early next week. Checking out the setup, scattered showers will arrive overnight tonight and into Friday. Expect showers through much of Friday and Saturday before moving out Saturday afternoon. We will then get a brief pause from the rain Sunday before another system arrives Sunday night into Monday. This next system will bring showers Monday and Tuesday and cooler temps on Wednesday. The biggest take away from todays forecast is: Don't forget those umbrellas! We will be wet the next couple of days so stay dry and drive safe on wet roads. Have a good one! Happy Wednesday, I hope you are staying warm! Temperatures for the lunch time hour are hanging around the mid to upper 30's with high's expected to top out in the low/mid 40's. Getting into our latest system, snow totals varied greatly throughout east TN. In addition to the graphic from NOAA below, here are the totals from the NWS: Campbell County: 1" Morristown: 1" Farragut: 0.8" Maryville: 0.5" Knoxville: 0.5" (at the 911 call center) La Follette: 2" Andersonville: 2.5" North Clinton: 1.5" Oak Ridge: 1.5" General speaking, the valley received anywhere from half an inch to an inch and a half with locally higher amounts. The change over to snow occurred a couple of hours quicker than anticipated, resulting in higher snow totals here in the valley. Nonetheless, snow stayed primarily to grassy surfaces, keeping roadways clear. Along with some snow on the ground, temperatures are much cooler as well. Looking at the latest 24-hour temperature change below, we are anywhere between 10 and 20 degrees cooler. The good news is warmer temperatures are on the way. Along with the sunny skies overhead, high's back around 50 degrees will return tomorrow. This is all due to a high sitting overhead for the time being. Working through the day tomorrow, this will break down and move out, getting replaced by a low developing in the Gulf. As you can see below, model guidance is suggesting scattered showers to arrive tomorrow evening/overnight and through the day Friday. Unfortunately, the first half of the day Saturday will stay wet as well, with showers slowly moving out by the afternoon and overnight hours. To end the weekend, mostly cloudy with high's, average, around 50 degrees. Thank you to all who sent in pictures of the snowfall around the area. Not only do we love sharing them, but it gives us an idea of who got what and where around east TN. That will concludes today's forecast but I wish everyone a great day and don't forget to watch our video forecast below! Good afternoon and I hope you are staying dry. It has been a wet one much of the day and will continue to be as we work into this afternoon. Looking across the nation right now, a very clear cold air mass is working through, dropping temps to the west into the 20 and 30's. Working into tonight, expect low's in the mid to upper 20's and high's Wednesday in the low to mid 40's. Looking at the surface map right now, the cold front continues to work through dropping those temperatures through today and overnight. A transition is beginning to take place into parts of middle TN and will work in by this afternoon and evening here in the valley. This system is expected to move out overnight leaving chilly temperatures Wednesday but sunny skies by the afternoon. Looking at model guidance and comparing it to the latest radar scan, mixing is taking place just west of Cookeville right now. As temperatures continue to fall, rain will change to frozen matter this afternoon and evening. As model guidance is suggesting, a quick moving system will allow for limited accumulation tonight and clearer skies for tomorrow. Looking at the overall totals, we will stick with our original forecast from yesterday with a few tenths of an inch. Locally higher amounts are possible working into the northern valley, but with warm surface temperatures (50's today and 60's yesterday) snowfall will be limited. Expect any accumulation to be on grassy surfaces, leaving clear road ways into Wednesday (YAY). Even though we are not anticipating travel issues, be weary of slick spots with low's dropping into the mid/upper 20's overnight. That concludes today's forecast but stay up to date via Twitter & Facebook for any changes in the forecast through today. Have a good one and don't forget the jacket tomorrow! Happy Monday to everyone! We started a bit wet this morning but have dried out this afternoon staying most cloudy. As you can see below, major changes will be taking place in the next 24/36 hours as a strong cold front is expected to slide through tomorrow. Looking at the latest surface map for the time being, showers will redevelop overnight tonight and into Tuesday before a cold front moves in tomorrow (early afternoon). This front will decrease temperatures rapidly through the day leaving low's near 30 degrees tomorrow night. Following this system, a brief high will keep things cool and dry Wednesday and Thursday before a short wave brings more moisture to close the work week on Friday. Looking at one of several models, this one shows a quicker transition with snowfall in the mix. This forecast is quit challenging due to the timing of the front, temperatures, amount of precipitable water, and topography. Data is from model-to-model, meaning one model may suggest one thing and another may suggest something else. Analyzing the latest data from the NWS, these events historically do not produce much accumulation in the valley. As we saw with the last system (very similar), little to no snowfall was recorded. Given all the data available right now, I will safely give a dusting to a few tenths of an inch possible in the valley. As more data comes in I will have a better idea of what will likely transpire. For now, keep those umbrellas handy with showers expected to continue tonight and into Tuesday. Winter coats will likely also be a must as temps will rapidly fall tomorrow afternoon. Have a good one and stay up to date with us for the latest! Cloudy skies hanging around this afternoon, looking at Newfound Gap in the Smokies. Light scattered showers are moving through as well, eventually moving out by this evening and overnight. Changes are on the way though late this weekend and early next week with much colder temperatures in the forecast. Looking at the latest surface map, a low pressure system to the west is bringing light scattered showers throughout today, ending overnight. Following this, we will get a brief reprieve Saturday before another system arrives late Sunday and into early next week. This next system will bring showers through Monday and into early Tuesday afternoon before much colder air funnels in from the north. We are expecting high's back into the low to mid 40's by mid next week. Looking at model guidance below, showers will fade out the second half of today. To start the weekend, mild, with partly cloudy skies and high's near average (low to mid 50's). Getting into Sunday, clouds build back in as showers arrive overnight Sunday and into Monday. This next round will be heavy at times with rumbles of thunder included as well. On the tail-end of the system we could see some wintry precipitation as well, very similar to the last system. As of now, not expecting any accumulations for the valley but we will keep an eye on this as we get closer to time. That wraps up the forecast for today but have a great weekend! As always, you can follow the latest weather updates and conditions on our social media (Twitter: @SecretCityWx & Facebook: Secret City Weather). Another beautiful day in store today with sunny skies and high's in the mid 50's. In other good news, the latest drought map shows zero abnormalities across the board. December is typically one of our wettest months, so I expect no changes by the years end. For the latest surface map, we can thank the high pressure system sitting over the area for the good weather we have had. Unfortunately, changes arrive into tonight and Friday. A system to the west will bring cloud cover in overnight and scattered showers by tomorrow late morning and into the afternoon. Looking at model guidance, we will stay dry overnight with showers developing and moving in by Friday. The good news with this next system is the light and quick moving nature it will possess. We are giving it a 40% chance of probability and coverage for east TN before it moves out Friday night. This will set up another comfortable day for Saturday with high's in the mid 50's and partly cloudy skies. That concludes today's forecast so enjoy the seasonable conditions before scattered showers arrive to close out the work week. Wow! Look at this shot overlooking Clingman's Dome this afternoon. High's today will get back near average in the lower 50's with tomorrow in the mid 50's. With ridging still in place over the region, there is little to discuss the next couple of days besides the sun filled skies and average temps. Changes do arrive Friday, as a weak system to the west will bring scattered showers through the day. Not to worry though, this system will be quick moving and light, leaving us with a mostly dry Saturday. Looking into mid December, cooler temperatures are expected to return. Slightly below average temperatures and above average precipitation are in the forecast. Keep in mind these graphics are for December 11-17th. That will wrap up today's forecast across east TN but go out and enjoy these seasonable conditions. Good afternoon everyone! It has been a rather chilly day with temperatures at 40 degrees right now. As we get into tonight, clouds will begin decreasing. This will allow for sunny skies and warmer temperatures to begin working back in Wednesday and Thursday. As you can see below, ridging is taking place over the region as a high pressure system in the south works in. As you can expect with ridging over the area, we will stay dry the next couple of days with the threat of some moisture (rain) moving in by late Thursday night and into Friday. This next system will be rather quick and light with sunny skies returning by Saturday and into the weekend. Getting into tomorrow, temperatures will be back near average in the lower 50's. Thursday will be seasonable with sunny skies and high's in the mid 50's. Have a good rest of your Monday! |
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