Good Wednesday afternoon! Showers are beginning to build in, working across the Plateau and Chattanooga now. This will be our first wave of the day with heavier showers and thunderstorms expected tonight and early Thursday. Looking at the Day 1 (Today, left) and Day 2 (Thursday, right) we do have some severe weather outlooks across the area. To start, Chattanooga just does miss the "Enhanced" (3/5) for severe storms, but is in the slight risk. For tomorrow, a slight risk for severe storm sits across the heart of the Valley and to the east. Expect the bulk of this to be early Thursday morning. All severe weather is on the table but the biggest risks will be hail, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Another hazardous weather feature that needs to be highlighted is the potential for flash flooding. The Plateau and Southern Tennessee lie in the slight risk (10-20%) chance for flash flooding while the remainder of the area is under a marginal (5-10%) chance. Future radar breaks down as the following: Showers are working through now as a warm front slides through the area. As the low progresses east, heavy showers and storms will accompany bringing marginally severe storms that will include gusty winds, lightning, and hail. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out, but the best environment will stay contained to the south and west of the Plateau & Chattanooga. The timing for "heavier stuff" comes late tonight and early Thursday morning. Nightfall helps our cause as nighttime cooling helps weaken the storm system. On the opposite end of the spectrum, if storms maintain their strength, night hours are the worst for severe weather as many are asleep and don't receive alerts. Have a way to receive watches and warnings if they are issued tonight and Thursday morning. We plan to monitor this closely, especially from midnight onward. Be on alert through the evening hours to Thursday morning. This will be our best opportunity for heavy showers and storms. Also have a way to receive alerts if severe weather were to occur (NOAA weather radio, apps, social media, tv, etc.) Have a good one, be safe, and check in for updates on our Twitter/FB tonight. Pre-recorded for 5pm show
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As we near closer, another low is expected to evolve and strengthen, bringing strong to severe storms to the Southeast. The latest from the SPC shows a MODERATE (4/5) region from Arkansas to Alabama Wednesday into Thursday. Parameters look very favorable for damaging winds, strong tornadoes, and heavy rain. The biggest threat across East Tennessee remains gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain. In fact, the WPC has labeled the area under a slight risk (2/4) for flash flooding Wednesday to Thursday. A deep swath of moisture from the Gulf is expected to accompany the low, bringing heavy rain across the mid-Atlantic states. Rainfall amounts over the two-day period are expected (as of now) to range from 2-4 inches. This will depend on where the heaviest axes of rainfall sets up, so anticipate some changes and tweaks this afternoon as more data comes in. The overall set up is as follows: A strong low will build in from the west by Wednesday, bringing a warm front from the south. Heavy rains will accompany this front followed by a cold front to the west. Positioned between the two fronts is where severe weather will be the most likely. Fortunately for us, storms are expected to weaken with the eastward shift. Nightfall will also play a helpful roll in weakening storms as diurnal cooling begins to take place. This doesn't mean we still won't face severe weather, especially for Chattanooga and the Plateau, it just means the odds are a bit less given the timing. Following this intense storm complex, we'll begin clearing and drying out for the weekend. Sunshine is finally back in the forecast this weekend and early next week. With lots of active weather on the plate, be sure to check in for updates and changes. If you have family or friends in these southern states, pass along this information as this is a very serious outlook tomorrow into Thursday. This would also be a good opportunity to practice severe weather safety (regardless of the threat): do you have a safe spot if a tornado warning is issued? Do you have access to a NOAA weather radio? These are just a couple of the important safety tips that should be in place before severe weather strikes. Again, the biggest threat lies to the SW but weakening severe storms will be possible tomorrow evening. Pre-recorded for 5pm show
A powerful low will work north today bringing moderate showers by the evening and overnight hours tonight. This will then be followed by a dynamic and strong system mid-week that could bring some severe weather to the region. For now, showers should hold off through much of the day with better chances not arriving until tonight. High's should top out in the mid 60's this afternoon. Progressing ahead, showers work in from the west bringing moderate rainfall (at times) tonight. Fortunately, activity looks to weaken as nightfall arrives. Showers are expected to be out by early Tuesday morning, allowing for a mostly cloudy day throughout. Our next storm system will arrive later Wednesday and into Thursday. Models still show a fair amount of uncertainty with timing and exactly where heavier showers/storms will set up, but all suggest a fairly strong playbook across parts of the southeast USA. Early indications suggest storms setting up to our southwest and working east late Wednesday and Thursday. The biggest threat, for now, is gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning. We'll continue to diagnose the atmospheric layout and what you can expect ahead. Taking a look at the SPC for Wednesday, a slight risk sits across the eastern Plains. This is expected to shift east for Thursday with a 15% categorical risk of severe weather across Western and Middle TN (more details below). The parameters look favorable for our first real severe weather setup of the new year. Changes are likely ahead so we'll keep you posted. Do your best to stay dry tonight, overall it should be a pretty quick mover while most are in bed. The next system mid-week appears to be more concerning as severe weather could be involved. I wish everyone a good start to the new week and don't forget to check out SecretCityWeather.com/AlmanacDownload Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Happy Friday to all! Looking at the latest 24-hour temperature change across the United States, cooler air sits just to the north. This is no coincidence as a frontal boundary is oriented through Eastern Kentucky and Western Tennessee. Through this afternoon, look for this to shift east bringing scattered shower chances into the evening and overnight. In fact, some of those showers are edging in now. Looking at the latest radar scan (timestamped 1:25pm), a pocket of scattered showers is working east through Clinton and La Follette. Temperatures should remain mild (near 70 degrees) this afternoon before the front knocks temps back into the lower 60's for Saturday. The pattern ahead remains unsettled. Cloud cover and scattered showers each day will be the main story. Right now, a slow moving boundary will bring showers into the area which will then be followed by an additional front Monday. A low sitting in the Southern Plains will meander east bringing widespread rainfall Monday into Tuesday. The best day this weekend looks to be Sunday as we sit between our next rainfall chances. Better conditions should find us in the middle of next week. If you haven't already, check out SecretCityWeather.com/AlmanacDownload to get your copy of this year's Secret City Weather East Tennessee Almanac. Highlights include climatic trends, 2020 weather records, 2020 Easter Tornadoes and more! Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Cloud cover will be on the increase this afternoon and evening as a frontal boundary sets up to our north. As you can see below, water vapor lines up well with where the heaviest precipitation swath will be. The bulk of showers will stay contained to Kentucky and west. With that said, we will see a few lingering showers (isolated to scattered) Friday and the weekend. As this boundary hangs to the north, a slight chance for thunderstorms is possible. Again, the heaviest and most active locations will be outside of East Tennessee. Better chances evolve early next week as a low (carrying a cold front) arrives Monday and Tuesday. A very unsettled pattern is ahead (quite the difference than the sunshine & warm temps we've had). Looking below, this data suggests the heavier rainfall band setting up into Kentucky and to the west. A few scattered showers will find their way south Friday and the weekend. As the low slowly works eastward better rainfall chances arrive early next week. Early indications suggest a healthy 1 inch rainfall will be possible Monday and Tuesday. This will be in additional to the half inch we see tonight through Sunday morning. Don't forget to download your copy of this years almanac which can be found at SecretCityWeather.com/AlmanacDownload Don't forget to view our daily video forecast below as well, more information about what you can expect ahead can be found. Pre-recorded for 5pm show
We have officially released this year's East Tennessee Almanac. You can download your copy at SecretCityWeather.com/AlmanacDownload or click the download button below. We are excited to add a few new elements that include a recap of the Easter 2020 tornadoes, our awesome sponsors, and more, so check it all out! Getting into the weather for the day, it has been breezy. Winds are blowing from the south between 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. The balance between high pressure to the east and a front to our west is forcing in warm and breezy air this afternoon. This will again be the case tomorrow too before a few showers round out the week and the weekend. Looking below, mid to late March is suggested to be right near the norm. A different story is painted for the western half of the USA with well below average temperatures expected. This pattern will likely shift east bringing a cooler than normal second half of March. As for the rain later in the week, waves of systems will pass just to our north bringing isolated to scattered showers Friday through the weekend. We will also see cloud cover move in today and again tomorrow associated with these passing systems. Overall, Friday through Sunday should stay on the cloudier side with a few showers possible each day. Another warm Spring-like day is on tap tomorrow with breezy conditions also sticking around. Don't forget to check out the release of our Almanac as well. Click on "Download" at the top of this post to access the page. Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Check out satellite from early this morning. A system to our north and west will pull in some cloud cover later today and into Wednesday. This will eventually be followed by showers with a second system late this week. For the day today, another round of sunshine and warm temps with high's finding the low 70's. A look into Wednesday show's high's continuing to climb. High pressure will shift eastward allowing for a southerly push of warm air. This continues into Thursday as well before isolated showers round out our week. Some areas, specifically to our south, could see temperatures as high as 80 during the middle to late part of the work week. As we work towards hump day, conditions remains relatively the same. A few clouds will work through today, tomorrow and Thursday before isolated to scattered showers find us Friday and the weekend. Overall, temperatures remain very Spring-like in the 60's and 70's (above average for this time of the year). We plan to get this years release of our Almanac out tomorrow, so be on the lookout for information on how to access that here and on our social media handles. Have a good one and enjoy the warm temperatures! Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Good morning! We will continue our streak of great weather with sunshine and temperatures on the warm side. As the day wears on, temperatures will warm up to high's in the low to mid 60's. This will be the start of a well above average week. Temperatures Thursday could find themselves as high as the mid 70's and even near 80 for some locations just to our south. Running through guidance over the next few days, things remain quiet. The big feature will be broad ridging across the southern half of the USA. This will lock in sunny and warm weather today through Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, cloud cover begins working back in as a weak system brings isolated showers on Friday. This will again be a great time to get out and about and enjoy very Spring-like weather. With multiple rounds of rain that brought flooding to parts of Tennessee and especially Kentucky, we have finally found normal for much of the state. A few locations still remain at abnormally dry, otherwise any drought we had has vanished. As we move forward, dry conditions will likely add to some dry spots but precipitation is expected to tick upward towards the middle part of March. Thanks, as always, for viewing and being apart of Secret City Weather. We appreciate your support! We would like to announce the publishing of our annual Almanac this week so be on the lookout for how you can access that in the days ahead. Have a good one and enjoy the wonderful conditions Mother Nature is blessing us with early this week. Pre-recorded for 5pm
Another beautiful morning is in the making with temperatures currently in the mid 30's. Looking over the Tennessee river, clear skies are around early but a bit of cloud cover is on the way. Not to worry, we will stay dry with highs in the low to mid 50's. Cloud cover will slide in this afternoon as a system to our west dives southward. Parts of Western to Central TN could see a few scattered showers today with our neck of the woods steering clear. By the weekend, high pressure works back overhead helping to keep things dry, sunny, and warming by early next week. Overall, the next several days remain seasonable with sunshine and high's in the 50's. Looking a bit more extended, this shot is of mid-week next week. High pressure will dominate, leading to above average temperatures for the southeastern 2/3's of the US. Looking at modeled high's, we'll see 60's to near 70 return next week. We'll also see a chance for showers return, but not for nearly a week from now. I wish everyone an excellent weekend and be on the look out for something special early next week! We will have all the information released here and on our social media handles. Pre-recorded for 5pm show
If you are a fan of the outdoors, this would be an excellent weekend to get out and about. This view comes courtesy of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park overlooking the Newfound Gap area. Another picture perfect blue sky day is upon us with temperatures quite comfortable as well. Looking at forecasted highs by the NWS today, most locations should see the mid 60's. I pushed for high's a little warmer but it will depend on how quick the cold front from our north works in. Regardless, it will be another gorgeous one through the day and even through the weekend. A system is expected to approach from the west this evening and into Friday but with little moisture to support rainfall, a few clouds are likely for the day. Temperatures will drop about 10 degrees with the passing of a cold front, but this still remains right on par to slightly above average for this time of the year. Mid-March looks to be very Spring-like with above average temperatures expected over the next 7 to 10 days. For reference, Spring officially begins on March 20th. Go out and enjoy this beautiful weather. With a bit of cooler (still on average) air this weekend, it may be a nice time to head up to the Smokies, walk the dog, or even break out the golf clubs. Pre-recorded for 5pm show
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