A chilly morning starting out, but travel looks pretty calm so far. Current temperatures sit in the mid 20s, but we'll warm to see highs in the mid to upper 40s this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will also accompany making things feel pretty seasonable. We are eyeing the potential for some early season severe activity, as the SPC has issued a 15% chance on Day 4 (Thursday). The trend has been a slight eastward shift (due to timing), so we will continue to watch this closely. A sweeping cold front, combined with strong winds, and ample warm and moist air, will allow for the development of strong to severe storms during the day. The biggest impacts will be strong to severe winds, heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, hail, and isolated areas of spin-up. Be sure to tune back in as we will have better details as we get closer to the event. In addition to thunderstorms, heavy rainfall will also accompany this system. Looking at just Thursday, East Tennessee could pick up 2 inches of rainfall for the day. This will likely come with a flash flooding/flooding issues, so I would not be surprised to see the WPC issue a marginal or slight outlook for their Day 3 (Thursday) tomorrow. Leading up to the event late week, skies will be mostly sunny and warm. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 40s, but mid to upper 60s by Thursday. Take advantage of the warmth now, cooler air follows Friday. Remember to check back in for the latest regarding this storm system Thursday. Some cells could be strong to severe and we'll have better details on the where/when and expectations in the days to come. Pre-recorded for 5pm show
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Good morning! Another pleasant and warm day is in the works. Sunny skies are present across the Newfound Gap area of the Smokies, but some cloud cover will work in by this afternoon & evening. Highs today will be quite warm, topping out in the mid to upper 60s, and for some, low 70s. Looking at surface wind gusts, it will be a breezy afternoon. With high pressure to the southeast, a strong surge of southwest flow will boost gusts to to near 30 mph. Sustained winds will be between 10-15 mph, before calming down overnight tonight. Moving forward, a disturbance will cross through late tonight and into Saturday, with little in the way of impacts. With this will be a cold front, expected to pass later tomorrow, and bringing isolated showers/flurries, as well as much cooler air for Sunday. Highs to end the weekend are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s before warming back up into the new work week. Have a wonderful weekend, and enjoy those Spring-like temperatures today. Much cooler air will find us late weekend. Pre-recorded for 5pm show
A line of mid and high level clouds are working in from the east. Luckily, these should be fairly brief, working out and locking in that sunshine. Highs today will be very nice, especially for this time of the year. Hint, this won't be the last time this week we feel very early-Spring like either. Highs today to be in the upper 50s. Moving forward, a weak cold front will slide through tomorrow. This will bring an increase of cloud cover (at times), as well as temperatures a degree or two cooler (low to mid 50s). By Friday though, temperatures rapidly warm back up. A warm frontal boundary will shift northward, increasing temperatures into the 60s. This will be well above average by 10 to 15 degrees. Another cold front will find us in for the weekend, bringing the chance for some light precipitation in the form of rain (Saturday afternoon/evening) and a few flurries (late Saturday night/Sunday morning). Cold air will follow with highs Sunday in the upper 30s and low 40s. Don't forget to check out our video forecast below. Have a wonderful day and enjoy these temperatures! Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Pleasant conditions continue to find us today, with highs a degree or two cooler than Monday. Most will settle near to slightly above average, with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Working into Wednesday, a warm front will work northward as high pressure is across our south and east. Return flow (as we like to call it) will usher in much warmer air ahead of another approaching cold front. With warmer air to surge in tomorrow, afternoon temperatures will be above the norm. Looking across our area, 5-10 degrees above average can be expected. This will translate to highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A cold front will then follow late tomorrow, bringing increased cloud cover (briefly) followed by temps a degree or two cooler (similar to today). We mentioned the drought potential ahead given the lack of rainfall anticipated over the next 7 days. Looking below, this is the current conditions, with abnormally dry spots across the Smokies and into the southern valley and plateau. Look for the updated map later in the week, but keep in mind this does not account for all the rainfall we saw late last week and into the weekend. Another pleasant day is in the works for Wednesday, with high temperatures even warmer. Take advantage if you can! Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Good morning and what a pleasant start to the new work week! It is on the chilly side but that will quickly change as the sun continues to rise. Looking across the US, high pressure is in full control of the area. This means lots of sunshine is ahead. Afternoon highs today will run near to slightly above average, topping out in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Check out the warm air across much of the eastern third of the US. A weakening cold front is set to cross the region tonight, but will bring little change in for Tuesday. The most notable change will be in temps, but even these will lower only a couple of degrees. A quick rebound then arrives for Wednesday, with highs for most in the mid 50s, and some, in the lower 60s. Overall, the next 7 day stretch will be pretty quiet. A very isolated opportunity for showers will be present Friday afternoon and into the day Saturday, but guidance continues to back off on this idea. The WPC highlights only a tenth of total precipitation for the far east (foothills & Smokies) over the next week. With that in mind, we could see an increase in abnormally dry surface conditions (AKA-very low end drought). We'll see what the new release looks like later this week, but for now, enjoy tame weather conditions. That will do it for today, I hope you can get out and enjoy these mild temperatures and sunny skies. We are less than 40 days away from Daylight Savings time, meaning longer days of sunshine will continue growing each day. Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Good morning and I hope you are staying warm! Current temperatures range from the upper 20s in the Plateau to mid 30s in the valley. As we work through the day, don't anticipate much of a warm up. Most will stay idle with little warming by this afternoon. Looking below, these were the hazards (watches, warnings, advisories) in place last night. As you can see, a MAJOR storm system impacted the eastern quadrant of the US. The southern end contained severe storms including thunderstorms, tornadoes, and flooding. Of course, the biggest threat for us was flooding (which other than a few ongoing minor river floods we faired fine with). Further north and west, ice and sleet were major issues, and further north and west, heavy snow blanketed the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Looking at rainfall totals, they varied. Locations hit the hardest were the far east and the leeward side of the Smokies and into the Carolinas. Much of the valley picked up between 2-4 inches, which came out a bit less than forecast. The drier air held on a bit longer, allowing for less overall accumulations. Overall, we still picked up significant rainfall but with the drier conditions from the previous weeks, the ground was able to soak that up with limited issues (yay!). Overall, this storm system was very messy but we came out alright. Most reports indicated between 2-4 inches of rainfall, with our site in particular (West side of Oak Ridge) picking up 2.44". Moving ahead, slightly warmer temperatures will be in the forecast tomorrow, with low 40s and much warmer air by Sunday around 50. Weather conditions will be quiet over the next 5 days, with very limited to no rainfall expected. Our next best shot comes a week from today. Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Good morning all! Lots to break down so let's jump right into it. First, these are the current hazards in place from the NWS. Purples indicate a Winter Weather Advisory, with a flood watch (green) highlighting nearly all of East Tennessee today/tonight. Breaking this down the main threat through this evening will be the rainfall. Flooding and flash flooding will be a big concern as rates could be as high as 1.5 inches over 6 hours (second graphic below) this evening. This will be on top of the rainfall (0.75-1") we received Wednesday and what we pick up through the daytime hours today. Totals this morning through Friday will be in the ballpark of 2-3" with locally higher amounts certainly not ruled out. In total (Wednesday through Friday) the Plateau and western half of the valley can expect 3-6" while the eastern half will range between 2-4" of rainfall. As the front moves through and colder air filters in, the changeover to a wintry mix is likely. The big question is how much? With a winter weather advisory in effect for the Plateau and northern valley (counties bordering KY), the NWS feels confident with ice accumulations up to 0.1". If this turns out to be so, power outages, very hazardous roads, and downed trees are possible. Probability wise, the chances are low to medium. Looking below shows the opportunity for 0.1" of freezing rain or greater. As you can see, most of the Plateau sits in the 20-40% range. The further north you are located, the higher the probability of seeing this potential. Roadways and the commute Friday morning could be rough for those in these locations, so avoid travel if possible, take it slow, and account for extra commute times. If colder air is slower to arrive, those in the plateau and northern valley will fair better. This will impact the highest terrain in these locations first, gradually creeping to lower plateau locations with time. As for the valley, we should fair fine with little to no impacts expected (winter weather wise). All will face a flooding/flash flooding threat, so have a way to receive alerts if warnings are issued (especially late this afternoon, evening, and early overnight). This is just one of many models breaking down the messy system passing through today and tonight. Lingering showers/wintry mix will be possible Friday morning, before gradually clearing skies arrive in the evening and overnight. Colder air will also be in place, with highs Friday in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Gradually warming temperatures and sunshine will be around for the weekend and into next week. Lots was discussed today and weather conditions will vary depending on where you are. The big take away today is the potential for flooding/flash flooding region wide, and the chance for light ice accumulations in the Plateau and northern valley (counties bordering KY). Have a way to receive warnings, and come up with a game plan now if you are in flood prone locations. Don't forget to check out our video forecast below, as more details and information is provided. Be safe and send us any reports you have! Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Good afternoon! The current satellite image shows beautiful sunny skies across the far Southeast right now (1 pm). This will unfortunately all change over the next 24 hours as a powerful system is expected to track across the Eastern CONUS. Highs today will be WARM, topping out in the mid and upper 50s, with some in the lower 60s. Breaking down our next weather maker, rain showers will arrive the later half of the day tomorrow. Some could see them through the morning, but all will see them by the evening. These will be on and off tomorrow and into the day Thursday, before a strong cold front slides in late Thursday. As it does so, a transition over to frozen precipitation will occur. The biggest threats here are the freezing rain potential. Areas most likely to see freezing rain, sleet, and brief snow are the Plateau and northern valley bordering KY. Going a bit more in depth: As cold air fills in at the surface, warmer air will still be present aloft. This could cause some freezing rain to form at the surface. Those most prone are the higher elevations (plateau) where cold air finds its way in quicker and the northern valley closer to the overrunning cold air surge. This transition will begin taking place in the overnight Thursday and early morning hours Friday. Freezing rain potential looks to be up to 0.1" but with warm surface temperatures leading up to the event, I anticipate more in the range of a few 1/100ths. Even so, this could provide travel impacts Friday morning. There still remains uncertainty on how quick this transition takes place, the exact track and placement of the low, and the finer details, so be sure to tune back in for further updates. The valley, for now, should fair with mostly rain and a brief transition late. Again, given the very warm surface temperatures expected leading up to the event, this should help chip away any freezing rain potential in these locations. The WPC has highlighted a marginal risk for Flash Flooding. This threat comes mainly on Thursday and into early Friday. Heavy rain and even the potential for lightning & gusty winds is possible. Have a way to receive alerts for watches or warnings leading up, and use caution if you are in flood prone areas or near water bodies. Rainfall totals look to be in the 1-2" range with locally higher amounts possible. We are also eyeing a chance for another system late weekend. Lots of uncertainty remains in the track of this, but a chance for rain and snow is not entirely ruled out. For now, prepare for quite a bit of rainfall tomorrow through Friday. Don't forget to send us reports as well as this helps others know what/where to avoid, and this also gives the NWS a heads up on warning activation (if needed). Pre-recorded for 5pm show
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