As we grow closer to the event, data is converging a bit better. With that said, there still remains some uncertainty and that will impact the outcome of the event this weekend. I will note this: the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the high terrain across East Tennessee. This includes the Plateau, Foothills, Smokies, and Northern Great Valley (bordering KY). Examining probabilities for 4 inches of snow or greater, a 40-70% chance is possible for locations under the watch. There also remains a 10-40% chance for the Central Valley (Kingston up to Morristown). **So you are saying there's a chance...?** Yes, but not a big one. It's not impossible to think 4+ inches is possible across portions of the valley, but this will be very dependent on exact track, timing, intensity, and temperatures. For now, check out the break down of what we are expecting area-wide (bottom of this post) Though higher resolution data is starting to trickle in 2 days away, there remains some discrepancies in path and low development. This run depicts a more "middle ground" solution. The break down for this event will generally go as: Tonight: cloud cover increases into Saturday morning as the system works in from the north and west Saturday/Sunday: isolated to scattered rain showers during the morning to early afternoon, becoming more widespread in the evening. As temperatures fall (especially for elevated locations) a mix to snow will begin. This will continue into Sunday where a change to all snow will come Sunday afternoon and into the night (this will be the best timeframe for accumulating snow during the event). This system will exit early Monday, leaving flurries MLK Jr. Day and then gradually clearing skies and chilly (mid 30s) temperatures. With everything now broken down a bit, here is our forecasted accumulations map: Locally higher amounts will be possible and with some uncertainties remaining these could rapidly rise in amounts or fall a touch. Either way, continue to check back in for updates and prepare ahead of time for a winter event. We'll provide you with the latest through the weekend...be sure to follow us on Twitter & Facebook (@SecretCityWx) Stay safe, stay warm, and limit travel if possible this weekend. Heavier bands of snowfall are expected at times, which will impact not only roadways but also visibilities. Slow down, take your time, and plan ahead with what may be needed if roadways are shut down or slow. Send us any reports you may have as well by tagging us on our social media or by emailing at SecretCityWx@aol.com Pre-recorded for 5pm show
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Lots to discuss so I am gonna jump right into it. Winter weather systems are very challenging to forecast in these parts because one (looks like small) variation can actually have a large scale change in reality. Looking below, a sketch of the 3 big global models shows this uncertainty. A more northern track signifies a more rain to snow (on the back side) forecast. A more southern track would mean a better opportunity at snow throughout. Given the large uncertainty still associated, it's hard to provide numbers. Right now, guidance suggests anywhere from no snow to 8 inches of snow depending where you are at.... Diving a bit deeper, plumes are a great example of showing the range of possibilities. In this instance, data suggests snowfall ranges from zero to over 9 inches....these lines will look much closer together (far bottom left of the image) as data converges (better agrees) on a solution. This is all to generally say, lots of uncertainty remains. As higher resolution data comes in and guidances comes into better agreement, we'll have a better idea. Again one change in path, low intensity/development, etc can change a lot in the grand scheme of things. Lastly, examining the probability forecast for ICE, there's a 10-20% chance to see 0.01" or greater. This doesn't seem like much but the current path favors the opportunity for some freezing rain (especially Saturday night). Be sure to continue to check in via Twitter/Facebook and here on the website for better details regarding this system. I anticipate a mix of all precipitation types, but narrowing that in on exact numbers remains too difficult to forecast with accuracy (as of this morning). Here is an example of just one of many model runs depicting the rain to snow/mix. Given the mean path of all models, I anticipate rain to start us off during the day Saturday, transitioning to a mix/freezing rain (possible briefly). Overnight, valleys will see a mix of rain and snow, before transitioning back to rain during the day Sunday. This will be different for elevated locations (Plateau) and especially the Smokies. The Plateau will likely see a better opportunity for snow Saturday night as these locations will be much closer to freezing (32) at the surface. The Smokies overall are expected to see the best snowfall. These will be on the highest locations (3000 ft+). Check in with us tomorrow for better details on precipitation types, snowfall numbers, and who might see what and where. For you winter weather lovers, please don't get caught up in model runs you may see swing around social media. These are NOT forecasts! This is guidance and needs to be taken with a BIG grain of salt. We'll continue to provide better details as they emerge, but for now, anticipate minimal to no accumulations and a more rain with some snow mixing in forecast. Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Good afternoon! It has been a beautiful day so far with current temperatures (11:30am) in the upper 30s and low 40s. We will continue to warm, reaching highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Mostly sunny skies can be seen from the TDOT webcam, with only a few high thin clouds working through. Working ahead, an isolated shower to sprinkle will be possible tomorrow afternoon/evening, but most should stay on the dry side. Further out, all eyes are on the system this weekend. A Clipper System (as we like to call them) will cross the area, bringing the opportunity for all precipitation types. There remains lots of uncertainty with track/position, which will dictate what we see. For now, anticipate a rain to snow mix with minimal accumulations. For snow lovers: root for a more southern track. Diving a tad deeper, the WPC suggests a 10-30% chance for accumulating snow across the area. The best opportunity will be across the Appalachians on the North Carolina side. We will keep a close eye on this system, but expect many changes and better details ahead. That will do it for today...enjoy another gorgeous and seasonable afternoon before increasing cloud cover arrives tonight and into Thursday. Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Good afternoon and what a chilly start it's been this morning! Looking over the Smokies via the Newfound Gap area, current temps here are in the mid teens (noon). You can also see the remaining snow left from our latest winter storm system. No winter weather, or even real impactful weather, expected over the next several days. For today, sunny and chilly. Highs to warm up into the low 40s across the Great Valley. Examining the latest drought map, we still have spots that sit at abnormally dry. These particularly encompass the far western portions of the state, parts of the Plateau, and the far northeastern tip of the state. Given the moderate to heavy rainfall yesterday, (1-2"), I anticipate these to shrink with the latest release later this week. Looking longer term, a cold swing is expected. The CPC suggests colder than normal temperatures, at least a better opportunity for them, the second half of the month. After a very warm November and December, we'll take a more true winter to balance the scales. That will wrap it up for today. If you'd like to be a part of this year's almanac (either content, picture, or sponsorship slots), visit: Pre-recorded for 5pm show
I hope you are staying warm this afternoon! Current temperatures are running from the upper teens to low 20s (Plateau) to mid 20s across the valley. These will warm a few more degrees before days end, but most won't break freezing (32). Luckily into tomorrow, high pressure will shift east, allowing for some return flow across the region (meaning warming temps). That is first not to downplay overnight lows tonight, as many find the low to mid teens once again. Working ahead, an approaching cold front and system will bring moderate to heavy rainfall Sunday. Precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches is possible, with the higher amounts westward (middle/western TN). This will be a quick moving system, dumping rainfall Sunday and out by Monday but cooler temperatures will follow. Because this system packs a lot of moisture and rain rates are expected to be moderate to heavy at times, the WPC has highlighted a Marginal Risk (5-10%) for flash flooding. Given the limited snowpack for a majority of the area, not anticipating too many hydro related issues. With that said, common flooding/flash flooding locations could see impacts Sunday afternoon. Dry but cool conditions return early next week, with highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 30s to low 40s. Have a great weekend, stay warm, and use caution Sunday with the moderate to heavy rainfall expected. Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Temperatures are much warmer this morning than this time yesterday. In fact, some locations are recording a 20-30 degree swing. Changes are upon us though as a cold front will pivot through the region this evening, providing the foundation for a potential snow event Thursday. Looking at probabilistic guidance, the odds of at least one inch or more of snow are high from Knoxville and north. As you can see below, half of East Tennessee see's a 50% or greater chance of this opportunity. This is higher than this time yesterday, and I suspect this will continue to grow into tonight and Thursday. Given the continued confidence, the NWS in Morristown has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Smokies, Northern Plateau, and counties bordering KY. These locations (highlighted in blue) are expected to see 4-6 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. For the remainder of us, I would not be shocked to see a Winter Weather Advisory for Kingston and up to Kingsport (roughly). This essentially means the central valley and north. These locations will likely see 1-3" with anything south of here (Chattanooga to near Athens) seeing a trace up to an inch. Travel, like with most snowy events, will be impacted. Use caution, have a way to receive alerts, and plan for slow travel times Thursday evening and again Friday morning. We will continue to update you on the latest as changes continue to be likely. For now, plan for snowfall (in the areas highlighted above) along with very cold Friday temps. Most will struggle to top freezing during the afternoon. More details in our video forecast below: Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Brrr temperatures across Volunteer Country are cold this morning, with most locations in the upper 20s (9am). Looking below, a vast difference in 24-hour temperatures is seen across the East Coast. As we work through the day, we will warm up "nicely". Highs today will top out in the mid and upper 40s (fairly average for this time of the year). Moving forward, we are closely tracking a winter system aimed for Tennessee, Kentucky, and the Mid Atlantic on Thursday/Thursday night. Confidence continues to grow, with more data agreeing there is a chance of accumulating snow for some. This system is expected to traverse the Deep South, leaving us in prime position for snow potential. The biggest questions are on timing (will this arrive sooner in the day or later- better for snow), will this system track further north or south, and how strong will this system be? Continue to check back in for the latest in the days ahead but early predictions from us are as follows: Plateau: 2-4" Central Valley: Trace-2" Northern Valley/Bordering KY: 1-3" Foothills: 2-4" Again, this is an early forecast with many changes likely in the discussions to come. Looking at model guidance below, ranges vary but all paint the same story: SNOW. Now, not to get too excited, some models suggest zero in the way of accumulations. With that said, have gone with something more in the middle given the continued uncertainty within the questions highlighted above. Confidence does continue to grow in a positive direction though for those of you who are snow lovers. *Do NOT take these modeled outlooks for fact* Don't forget to check out our forecast video below as we highlight probabilistic outlooks for snow accumulations Thursday, as well as provide a more detailed discussion for the days ahead. Follow us on Facebook/Twitter as well (@SecretCityWx) Pre-recorded for 5pm show
Many (but not all) are seeing snowfall on the ground this morning. Lingering flurries will be possible through the late morning, before partly sunny to sunny skies return this afternoon. If you are headed out on the roadways this morning, be sure to take it slow. TDOT is reporting the worst hit roads in the Foothills, Plateau, and Smokies, but all roads could be slick in areas. Take your time and account for slower travels times. Overall totals varied across East Tennessee, but here is a break down of a few spots: Dayton: 4" Athens: 2" Powell: 1.5" Mcghee Tyson Airport: 2.3" Morristown: 3" Pitman Center: 5" Gatlinburg: 8" LeConte: 10" Check out the Cosby area in the Foothills of the Smokies. These pictures come courtesy of @hikerman4606 on Twitter. Reports of around 6" were recorded as of 9am this morning. If you would like to submit your pictures and/or snow report, we encourage you to do so by tagging us on Twitter or Facebook (@SecretCityWx) or by emailing us @SecretCityWx@aol.com Moving forward, another system could bring us a second round of wintry weather Thursday and into early Friday. The WPC suggests a 10-30% chance for at least at least 2.5 inches. These percentages are low, but for now the best opportunity looks to be for the higher terrain (plateau & Smokies). Most will likely see rain with a transition over to a few flakes late in the night Thursday. Highs this afternoon will be chilly, only topping out in the mid and upper 30s. High pressure will enter overnight, warming things up into the 40s tomorrow and around 50 for Wednesday. Sunshine also finds us throughout the day tomorrow, before cloud cover edges back in Wednesday. Have a good one, stay warm, and send us any reports you may have! Pre-recorded for 5pm show
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